Беспорядки в Египте и мировое судоходство

Мировое судоходство и торговля нефтью рассматривают сценарии «что если» на случай, если Суэцкий канал закроется ввиду текущих беспорядков в Египте.

Канал закрывали в 1956 году во время Суэцкого кризиса, он был заблокирован на 8 лет вслед за шестидневной арабо-израильской войной в 1967. Однако, в то время нефтью не торговали на спотовых рынках, и эффект на рынок танкеров был незначительным.

Так называемая танкерная война в Персидском заливе в 1984 – 1987, когда Иран и Ирак вступили в схватку, и целью стали танкеры, стала причиной судоходных проблем. Однако, влияния на цену нефти это не оказало.

В этот раз, когда ситуация в Египте накаляется, и порты страны закрыты, цена нефти поднялась, стоимость сырой нефти превысила $100 за баррель впервые за более чем 2 года.

Цены на акции крупных мировых операторов танкеров, таких как Frontline, DS Torm, Euronav выросли, что послало на рынок волны беспокойства. Однако, согласно экспертам опасения закрытия канала необоснованы, и такие страхи на рынке краткострочны, если только беспорядки не перекинутся на другие страны в Западной Азии.

Важное значение Суэцкого канала

Цены на нефть могут и дальше несколько расти, однако маловероятно, что будет побит рекорд июля 2008 года в 146$ за баррель. Однако, сейчас на рынках паники нет. Называется несколько причин, почему рынок нефти должен оставаться спокоен.

Во-первых, Суэцкий канал все еще работает. Милиция взяла под контроль канал, и конвой судов после 3 часов дня обеспечивается милицейской охраной. Движение сырой нефти через 200-километровый трубопровод Сумед, соединяющий Красное и Средиземное море, также не пострадало.

Во-вторых, согласно отчетам в западных СМИ, в странах ОПЕК есть дополнительная мощность, которая оценивается в 5 млн. баррелей в день. Согласно Международному энергетическому агентству, запасы нефти в богатых странах сейчас способны покрыть 61-дневный расход, что является пиком за 10 лет.

В-третьих, центр спроса сместился с последнего закрытия канала в 1967 году. Если тогда фокус основной массы спроса приходился на США и Европу, и канал был жизненноважен, то сейчас ситуация изменилась. Спрос сместился в Азию, Индия и Китай являются крупными потребителями, и они не зависят от канала в плане транспортировки. Согласно оценкам, только 4,5% мирового производства нефти провозится через канал и параллельный трубопровод. Согласно Barclays, закрытие канала, в худшем случае, выведет 2-3 млн. баррелей нефти и еще 2 млн. баррелей нефтепродуктов из оборота.

И наконец, есть дополнительный незадействованный тоннаж танкеров, который может обеспечить возможный спрос на транспортировку, если танкерам на линиях между Азией и Европой придется идти по более длинному пути вокруг Африки и мыса Доброй надежды. Другими словами, влияние закрытия канала, скорее всего, будет намного более сглажено, чем в 1950-60х. Однако, страхи остаются. Более танкеров пострадали от беспорядков в Египте операторы контейнеровозов. Это произошло потому, что контейнеровозы перевозят товары из Азии, и Европа и США составляют до 50% направлений транспортировок через канал.

Влияние на торговые маршруты

Беспорядки вынудили многих контейнерных операторов приостановить или пересмотреть свои услуги. Например, Maersk, крупнейшая в мире контейнерная линия, уже объявила о том, что ее суда не заходят в Порт Саид. Южноконейская компания Hanjin пересматривает некоторые свои контейнерные линии, глава компании заявил, что работа линий в Порт Саиде и Александрии пострадала от недостатка рабочих. В результате, некоторые контейнеры разгружаются в ближайших портах. Некоторые контейнеровозы, которые должны были разгружаться в Египте, вместо этого приходят в Сингапур. Закрытие египетских портов повлияло на перевалочные операции многих контейнерных линий.
Согласно оценкам, более 34 000 судов прошли через канал в 2009 и половина из них останавливалась в египетских портах для пополнения запасов, военных эскортов и смены экипажа.

В первые три недели 2011 года, до момента начала беспорядков в Египте, более 300 контейнерных судов прошли через канал. APM Terminals, отделение компании Maersk, которое управляет контейнерными терминалами в египетских портах, а также DP World, дубайский оператор контейнерных терминалов, закрыли свою работу в Египте.

В судоходной отрасли есть опасения, что неспокойствие в Египте, и в несколько меньшей степени в Тунисе, Алжире и Йемене, указывают на возможность возникновения волнений и в богатых нефтью странах Западной Азии.

чт, 01/03/2012 - 07:00

Член Великой Отечественной борьбы 1941 - 45, Злобин отдельное часы был в плену и на основе персональных наблюдений создал роман "Исчезнувшие безвести" ( т. В послевоенные возрасты Злобин завершил роман "Островок Скандалист" ( 1948 ), в 1951 был изображен самый основательный его роман - "Степа Разин". Новый роман "Утро века" не был окончен. 1 - 2, 1962 ) - о смелости советских военнопленных.

Эта система воззрений становится все более содержательной по мере того как человек включается во взаимодействие со все более всевозможными группками. Всякий свежий общественный контакт обменивает шоу человека о себе, и полегоньку у него формируется полная система подобных шоу. Самосознание по собственному существу владеет глубоко общий норов. Мерилом для человека в его касательстве к себе играют, прежде всего, противоположные публики.

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