Что происходит в секторе насыпных перевозок: интервью с судоходной ассоциацией BIMCO

Ставки сухогрузов падают, и многие в отрасли опасаются высоких уровней остановленных судов в секторе балкеров. Интервью с судоходной ассоциацией BIMCO, дающее ответы на некоторые из этих опасений и предлагающее некоторые прогнозы на будущее.
 
В.: Правда ли, что сейчас первый раз, когда сухогрузы уводятся с рынка, с начала мировой рецессии в конце 2008 года?
 
О.: Всегда есть тоннаж, который временно выводится из строя, (сухогрузы, танкеры, контейнеровозы), даже на высокой точке рынка, однако необходимо различать между незадействованным тоннажем (до 3 месяцев), теплым (до 12 месяцев), холодным (до 5 лет) и долгосрочным (5 и более лет), в зависимости от того, как скоро эти суда деактивируются. Кроме того, суда временно выводятся из строя для ремонта, запланированной стоянки в сухих доках или просто для ожидания следующей фрахтовой сделки. Однако, в секторе сухогрузов достаточно редкий феномен вывода из строя большого количества судов на длительный период.
 
В недавнее время можно было наблюдать большое количество незадействованных контейнеровозов (до 500 судов на пике в 2009 году), и во время нефтяного кризиса в 70-80е гг. можно было увидеть много незадействованных нефтяных танкеров, некоторые из них были совсем новыми – прямо из верфи в холодный простой, до 10% мирового танкерного флота простаивал на пике в 1983 году. В том же году сухогрузы тоже выводились из оборота в рекордных количествах, но всего около 4% всего флота сухогрузов. На конец второго квартала 2010 года было выведено из работы всего 39 балкеров.
 
Владельцы предпочитают ре-позиционировать свои суда, например, из Тихоокеанского бассейна в Атлантический в надежде на следующий фрахт. Когда судно ставится на прикол надолго, необходимо время для его последующей реактивации, завод двигателей, судну может потребоваться заход в сухой док до нового выхода в море, в зависимости от степени обрастания подводной части корпуса. Крюинг тоже под вопросом, так как число членов экипажа обычно уменьшается ниже торгового уровня по соглашению с флаговым государством, классификацией, страхователями и местными властями.
 
 
В.: Какие за этим стоят факторы? Сколько нового спроса должно поступить на рынок? Какой сейчас переизбыток мощностей? Сколько лишних судов вы прогнозируете в будущем?
 
О.: Две основных причины: во-первых, переизбыток тоннажа, во-вторых, замедление импорта железной руды Китаем. В 2009 году флот сухогрузов вырос на 10%, в 2010
прогнозируется рост на 15%. Большая часть этого тоннажа – Capesize и VLOC на 180 000-400 000 dwt (это самые крупные суда, в основном они задействованы в перевозке угля и железной руды в Китай). Новые суда Capesize спускаются на воду каждые два дня, и даже при условии дополнения спроса Китая спросом из США и Европы фундаментальный баланс между спросом и предложением в сегменте Capesize сейчас приходится «в пользу фрахтователей», как можно выразиться. Флот Capesize уже вырос на 10% в этом году, а сейчас только середина июля.
 
Сложно оценить мощности и их переизбыток, но если брать за подход использование всего флота сухогрузов, он был близок к 100% в 2007-2008 гг. В кризис утилизация сухогрузов спустилась до 85%, что обвалило ставки ниже уровня окупаемости. С середины 2009 года процент утилизации возвратился на уровень выше 90%, показывая здоровую среду для уровня ставок.
 
С того момента этот уровень поддерживался, однако сейчас стрелка направлена на юг. И кажется, можно предположить, что уровень утилизации в сегменте Capesize сейчас ниже 90%, и скорее всего, был на таком уровне весь прошлый месяц. Можно прогнозировать на низком уровне выводимый из строя тоннаж, однако, если говорить о 500 судах, незадействованных в секторе контейнеровозов в прошлом году, скорее всего, такого не произойдет. Возможно, будут поставлены на прикол около 50 судов Capesize в течение трех месяцев.
 
В.: Какие основные факторы влияют на падение спроса на сухогрузы? Действительно ли здесь не обошлось без Китая?
 
О.: Основным фактором является переизбыток предложения и в частности флота Capesize. Однако снижение активности в Китае не улучшает положение вещей. Китай импортировал 47 млн. тонн железной руды в июне, что значительно ниже, чем в среднем за 5 месяцев 2010 года по 52 млн. тонн руды. В будущем импорт руды может быть в районе 40-50 млн. тонн, в зависимости от цен на руду, на сталь и обстоятельствах на рынке жилья и строительства Китая.
 
Посмотрите на это с такой точки зрения, ставки были на хорошем уровне за последний год, и в то же время Китай работал на полную мощность, что уравняло спрос и предложение на сухогрузы. Сейчас, баланс поджимает избыток предложения, что приводит к снижению ставок. Учитывая это, спад в индексе BDI тяжел для всех участников рынка.
В.: Насколько упали ставки на сухогрузы? И сколько, вы ожидаете, это продлится?
 
О.: BDI падал 35 дней подряд, достигнув уровня 1700 16 июля. Этот индекс является композитным для всех сегментов рынка сухогрузов (Capesize, Panamax, supramax и handysize). BDI упал с уровня 4209 26 мая до 1700 1 июля, что показывает падение на 60%.
 
Наибольшее падение было зарегистрировано в сегменте Capesize, где среднее значение чартерных маршрутов упало на 75%. Сейчас ставки так упали, что окупить затраты могут только те суда, которые не имеют кредитов. Если рассмотреть судно Capesize с финансированием на 60% из заемного капитала, необходимо обслуживать кредит – проценты, основную сумму долга, списание – на уровне выше $30000 в день. Сейчас очень трудные времена для многих участников рынка.
 
Фрахтовые ставки сухогрузов на удивление шли вверх в прошлом году, отрицая гравитационное влияние притока нового тоннажа, который был заказан в годы бума. Я не ожидаю, что рынки снова вернутся на низкие уровни начала 2009 года. Также я не ожидаю, что рынок достигнет ставок в $100 000 в день на тоннаж Capesize в ближайшие 2-3 года. Однако, средние ставки на рынке будут достаточны, чтобы удержать судовладельцев на плаву, но не более. Однако, как говорят, прогнозировать тяжело, особенно будущее!
чт, 07/05/2015 - 06:19

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