Судостроение: испытания для целой отрасли

В последнее время было много обсуждений состояния мирового судостроения, но многие комментарии были основаны на предположениях и чистых догадках. Не было обоснованной оценки вероятности риска отказов, связанного с книгой текущих заказов.
 
Недавно выпущенный отчет компании Drewry Shipping Consultants рассматривает факты и развенчивает некоторые мифы, окружающие будущее судостроительной индустрии. Недостаток понимания привел к некоторым хаотичным или полностью неправильным оценкам. Но некоторые вещи можно утверждать совершенно точно.
 
Во-первых, мировая книга заказов в настоящий момент является самой крупной в истории, что создает опасность долгосрочного избытка предложения судов в нескольких – или во многих – секторах индустрии. Ситуацию можно сравнить с рынком крупных танкеров в начале 1970х, когда избыток заказов дестабилизировал рынок на десятилетия. Эта ошибка была повторена в недавнее время, только в большем масштабе и не только на рынке танкеров, но и на рынке балкеров и контейнеровозов.
 
Drewry установили три возможных сценария развития спроса в судостроении до 2023 года. Согласно лучшему сценарию (best case), необходимость в новых судах для удовлетворения чистого увеличения спроса на суда и необходимость в восполнении списанных судов до 2013 года составит 97 млн. cgt, тогда как текущая книга заказов и запланированные поставки судов на данный период в два раза больше. Прогнозируемая необходимость в новых судах возрастает до 120 млн. cgt в период с 2014 по 2018 гг. и  до 139 млн. cgt до 2023 г. В эти периоды потребность в новых судах будет значительная, главным образом из-за необходимости замещать изношенные части мирового флота.
 

Вопрос времени: опыт балкеров

 
В настоящий момент все внимание сосредоточено на ближайших 5 годах, и рынок балкеров представляет собой яркий пример проблем, с которыми столкнулись судоходство и судостроение.
В начале 2009 года в работе находилось 6 864 балкеров в общем на 422 млн. тонн dwt. Несмотря на стабильный поток новых судов, флот старый, и возраст судов в среднем составляет 16 лет. Несмотря на то, что большая часть тоннажа не будет списана, пока не достигнет 30 лет, уже есть значительное количество судов, возраст которых превышает 20 лет. При условии существенного спада рынка фрахта балкеров, списание в этом секторе может возобновиться, и в период до 2013 года изъятия могут составить более 60 млн. dwt. Если торговля будет расти с темпами, зарегистрированными в период 2000-2008 гг., это спровоцирует дополнительный спрос на новые суда в объеме примерно 100 млн. dwt в течение 5 лет.
 
Однако, последние прогнозы свидетельствуют, что в ближайшие 5 лет рост торговли создаст новый спрос на уровне около 50 млн. dwt. К этой цифре, конечно, необходимо добавить списания этого периода, но даже в сумме общий спрос составит всего 300 млн. dwt, который сейчас запланирован к поставке в период до 2013 года. Таким образом, рост торговли не спасет рынок сухогрузов.
 
Темпы списания в секторах контейнеровозов останутся низкими из-за более молодого возраста флота, несмотря на неблагоприятные условия. Похожая, но менее острая, ситуация сложилась на рынке танкеров.
 
Текущая книга заказов и запланированные поставки свидетельствуют, что около 197 млн. cgt нового тоннажа будут построены и поставлены до конца 2013 года. В настоящий момент существует значительная вероятность того, что до 20-30 млн. cgt будут отменены, что снизит тоннаж к поставке до уровня 170-175 млн. cgt. Около 14% книги заказов сейчас находятся под существенным риском отмены.
 

Фантастика судостроения

 
Загрязнение вод является значительной проблемой судостроительных мощностей. Многие наблюдатели предполагали, что книга заказов является планом судостроительных мощностей, но распространенная неспособность верфей закончить строительство судов вовремя предполагает, что мощности на самом деле меньше, чем кажется. Drewry оценивают, что мировые верфи построили 2 173 судна в 2008 году, что составляет 79 млн. dwt, 57 млн. gt и 36 млн. cgt. В то время как отчеты о строительстве за 2008 еще могут поступать, на данный момент оценивается, что производство только на 0,4 млн. cgt больше, чем в 2007 году.
 
Несмотря на спешку успеть в судостроительный бум, рост судостроительных мощностей до настоящего момента был меньше, чем прогнозировалось. В реальности, верфи обещали построить больше, чем могли, что свидетельствует о некотором преувеличении текущих планов по поставке судов. Масштаб контрактов вынудил многих судостроителей обещать даты окончания строительства, основываясь больше на желаниях, чем на реалистичной производительности и улучшениях мощностей. Если общее запланированное к поставке строительство на 2009 году будет закончено, количество новых судов (включая опоздания с 2008 года) должно примерно удвоиться по сравнению с цифрами 2008 года – 36 млн. cgt, что очень маловероятно произойдет.
 

Заключения Drewry можно обобщить следующим:

 
  • Размер текущей книги заказов свидетельствует о существенном превышении поставок над спросом в некоторых секторах
  • Временное планирование книги заказов нереалистично, и многие суда не будут построены вовремя, следовательно, вероятность опозданий увеличивается, что поможет смягчить чистое прогнозируемое увеличение предложения
  • Отказы от заказов на новые суда до настоящего момента были незначительны, и несмотря их ожидаемый рост, они не будут способны значительно уменьшить объем книги заказов
  • Рост морской торговли и спрос на суда в ближайшие пять лет поглотят относительно небольшие объемы заказанного тоннажа
  • Списание судов поможет облегчить ситуацию, но в ограниченном размере, уменьшая чистое увеличение размера мирового флота
  • Откладывание и перепланировка дат поставок судов могут быть более привлекательной возможностью. И так как лишь незначительные объемы смещения дат строительства произошли на рыке, это предоставляет значительный потенциал для снижения дисбаланса.
 
Мировые судостроители несомненно переживают трудные времена между поставкой текущей раздутой книги заказов и возвращению к установившимся тенденциям заказов на строительство.
 

Резкое падение заказов на новые суда усугубляется по мере развития кризиса

 
Случаи отказа от заказов в ноябре прошлого года составили 154 и одинаково расстроили как судостроителей, так и операторов, но худшее еще впереди. «В апреле уже были зарегистрированы отказы от 1000 судов по всему миру, и ожидается, что число отказов будет расти в этом году», - сообщил Class NK, или Nippon Kaiji Kyokai, крупнейшее в мире общество по классификации судов.
 
Обзор Class NK также свидетельствует, что в марте текущего года верфи Южной Кореи, Китая и Вьетнама уже были ударены волной отказов от новых судов, и ожидается, что эта ситуация продлится до 2011 года.
 
Они добавили, что отказы теперь включают сделки, заключенные до подписания контракта с верфью, сделки, основанные на предварительной резервации строительства в верфи, сделки с письмом о намерении на строительство нового судна.
 
Операторы верфей понимают, что финансовые проблемы, следующие из глобального экономического кризиса, привели к отказу от заказов, и отмечают, что сами страдают от более высокого уровня затрат, значительных задержек в строительстве и уменьшении гарантий возмещения от финансовых институтов.
 
С другой стороны, владельцы сообщают, что проблемы с денежным потоком являются следствием глобального финансового кризиса, и чартерные дефолты являются следствием падения рынков, и все они ударили по финансовой отчетности.
 
Большое количество отказов приходится на балкеры (281 отказ), за ними следуют отказы от общих грузовых судов (17), нефтяных танкеров (12), контейнеровозов и химических танкеров (6 каждый) и других типов судов (35).

Из общего количества 357 отказных судов, 138 судов должны были быть построены на Корейских верфях, 130 в Китае и 44 во Вьетнаме.
 
Ввиду глобального финансового кризиса банки больше не способны кредитовать судовладельцев, большинство из которых предпочли уплатить неустойки за отказ, чем уплатить всю стоимость новых судов.
 
На Филиппинах большинство из вновь построенных судов были немедленно выведены из обращения из-за стабильного снижения мирового объема грузооборота.
чт, 08/03/2012 - 13:14

[19] G. [18] van Fraassen B. Harman, The Inference to the Best Explanation, Philosophical Review, 74 (1965), pp. The Scientific Image. 5-19.

Предположительно на ухудшение зрения в этом эпизоде действует влияние раздольных радикалов, когда антиокислительная система организма изнемогает с годом. нарушения в ней назначают под угрозу прежде всего серединное зрение. Макула - серединная область ретины, на какой фокусируется световой пучок; Препарат оказывает антисептическое, сосудосуживающее, умиротворяющее влияние и имеет противовоспалительном результатом. Препаратом для профилактики подобного положительного заболевания, как возрастная макулярная дегенерация ( ВМД ), представляет Окувайт Лютеин® ( "Бауш энд Ломб", Германия ), предотвращающий и даже останавливающий дегенерацию макулы.

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